Analisis Kecenderungan Pengundi Melayu di DUN Batu Tiga Shah Alam Selangor Menjelang PRN 2023
Abstract
ABSTRAK
Pilihan Raya Negeri 2023 buat pertama kali dijalankan secara berasingan daripada PRU-15 di mana terdapat enam buah negeri yang terlibat iaitu Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Pulau Pinang, Kedah, Kelantan dan Terengganu. Keputusan PRU-15 yang lalu menunjukkan Pakatan Harapan mendahului jumlah kerusi parlimen di Selangor iaitu sebanyak 16 daripada 22 kerusi yang dipertandingkan. Isu yang timbul adalah apakah kerjasama PH dan BN mampu berhadapan dengan Perikatan Nasional di Selangor khususnya di DUN Batu Tiga Shah Alam. Oleh itu, kajian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor kecenderungan pengundi Melayu terhadap kerjasama Pakatan Harapan dan Barisan Nasional menjelang PRN 2023. Kajian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif menerusi kaedah tinjauan (survey) di lapangan sekitar bulan Julai 2023. Kajian ini melibatkan penduduk N41 Batu Tiga Shah Alam yang meliputi 20 Pusat Daerah Mengundi (PDM). Terdapat 372 orang responden terlibat dalam kajian ini dan dipilih menerusi kaedah berstrata bernisbah purposive. Data kajian juga di analisis secara deskriptif. Hasil kajian menunjukkan terdapat dua faktor dominan dalam melihat kecenderungan pengundi Melayu terhadap kerjasama Pakatan Harapan dan Barisan Nasional. Faktor tersebuat ialah faktor pilihan rasional dan faktor identifikasi parti. Sebagai rumusan, jelaslah bahawa orang Melayu di DUN Batu Tiga ini dominan cenderung untuk memilih gabungan kerjasama PH dan BN disebabkan mereka yakin gabungan ini boleh menyelesaikan masalah setempat dan meningkatkan kesejahteraan hidup berbanding politik perkauman.
Kata Kunci: DUN Batu Tiga, gabungan PH BN, pilihan raya, tingkah laku pengundi, demokrasi, kecenderungan politik
ABSTRACT
The 2023 State Election was conducted independently of the 15th General Election (GE-15) and included six states: Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu. The results of GE-15 indicated that Pakatan Harapan (PH) achieved a majority in Selangor, securing 16 of the 22 contested parliamentary seats. A critical issue that emerged was the ability of the PH-Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition to compete effectively against Perikatan Nasional (PN) in Selangor, particularly within the Batu Tiga constituency of Shah Alam. This study examines the factors influencing Malay voter tendencies toward the PH-BN coalition in the lead-up to the 2023 State Election. A quantitative methodological framework was employed, utilizing a survey conducted in July 2023, which targeted residents of N41 Batu Tiga. The research encompassed data from 20 District Polling Centers (PDM) and involved 372 respondents selected through stratified proportional purposive sampling. The data were analysed descriptively. The findings reveal two predominant factors influencing Malay voter tendencies: rational choice factors and party identification factors. In conclusion, the results suggest that Malay voters in Batu Tiga exhibited dominantly a propensity to support the PH-BN coalition, driven by the belief that this partnership could effectively address local issues and enhance living standards, thereby presenting a more pragmatic alternative to traditional racial politics.
Keywords: DUN Batu Tiga, PH-BN coalition, election, voters behaviour, democracy, political inclination
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