Perubahan pola pengundi Melayu dan kesan terhadap prestasi UMNO pada kerusi Parlimen di Johor, PRU 15 (Changes in Malay voting patterns and their impact on UMNO’s performance in Parliamentary seats in Johor during the GE15)

Abstract

Kajian ini meneliti perubahan pola pengundian masyarakat Melayu dan implikasinya terhadap prestasi UMNO di kerusi Parlimen negeri Johor dalam Pilihan Raya Umum ke-15 (PRU 15). Fokus utama kajian ini adalah menganalisis peralihan sokongan pengundi Melayu yang mempengaruhi kedudukan UMNO di Johor, yang sebelum ini dikenali sebagai kubu tradisi parti tersebut. Perubahan pola pengundian tersebut dikaitkan dengan beberapa faktor utama, antaranya krisis kepimpinan dan perpecahan dalaman UMNO, kemunculan parti dan gabungan politik baharu, pengaruh wacana politik identiti dan agama terhadap persepsi pengundi Melayu. Kajian ini menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif bagi menganalisis pola pengundi dan tafsiran terhadap sumber yang dikaji, terutamanya helaian mata (score sheet) keputusan pilihan raya kerusi Parlimen di Johor bagi mendapatkan maklumat yang jitu. Selain itu, kajian ini turut menggunakan analisis keputusan pilihan raya bagi meneliti pola sokongan pengundi Melayu serta hubung kaitnya dengan prestasi UMNO bagi kerusi Parlimen di Johor. Dapatan kajian menunjukkan bahawa pola sokongan pengundi Melayu dan kemerosotan kesetiaan politik tradisional menyumbang secara signifikan terhadap prestasi yang tidak konsisten UMNO pada PRU 15 di Johor. Secara keseluruhannya, kajian ini menyimpulkan perubahan pola sokongan pengundi Melayu bukan sahaja mencerminkan transformasi tingkah laku politik masyarakat Melayu, malah menandakan cabaran struktural yang semakin kompleks terhadap kelangsungan dominasi politik UMNO di Johor pada era politik pasca hegemonik.

Kata kunci: Johor, pengundi Melayu, pola pengundi, tingkah laku Politik, UMNO

This study examines the changing voting patterns of the Malay community and its implications for UMNO's performance in the Johor parliamentary seats in the 15th General Election (GE15). The main focus of this study is to analyze the shift in Malay voter support that affected UMNO's position in Johor, which was previously known as the party's traditional stronghold. The change in voting patterns is linked to several key factors, including the leadership crisis and internal divisions in UMNO, the emergence of new political parties and coalitions, and the influence of identity and religious political discourse on Malay voter perceptions. This study uses a qualitative approach to analyze voting patterns and interpretations of the sources studied, especially the scoresheets of the parliamentary seat election results in Johor to obtain accurate information. In addition, this study also uses an analysis of election results to examine the support patterns of Malay voters and their relationship with UMNO's performance in the parliamentary seats in Johor. The study findings show that the support patterns of Malay voters and the decline in traditional political loyalty contributed significantly to UMNO's inconsistent performance in the 15th GE in Johor. Overall, this study concludes that the changing support patterns of Malay voters not only reflect the transformation of the political behavior of the Malay community, but also indicate an increasingly complex structural challenge to the continuation of UMNO's political dominance in Johor in the post-hegemonic political era.

Keywords: Johore, Malay voters, voting patterns, political behavior, UMNO