Pengekalan Status Quo BN Dalam PRK DUN Mahkota, Johor (Maintaining the BN Status Quo in the By-election of State Legislative Assembly Area of Mahkota, Johor)

Abstract

Pasca Pilihan Raya Umum (PRU) ke-15, 2023 memperlihatkan berlakunya 10 Pilihan Raya Kecil (PRK) dan yang terakhir adalah PRK DUN Mahkota yang diadakan pada 28 September 2024. PRK DUN Mahkota ini ditandingi BN buat kali keempat selepas menyertai PRK Parlimen Kemaman, DUN Pelangai dan DUN Nenggiri. PRK ini penting bagi menaikkan semangat jentera pilihan raya BN terutamanya UMNO dan memulihkan sokongan pengundi kepada BN/UMNO. DUN Mahkota diadakan PRK berikutan kematian penyandangnya. Kawasan ini yang terletak dalam Parlimen Kluang, Johor merupakan kubu kuat BN kerana BN memenangi empat kali dan hanya tewas sekali. Justeru, adalah menjadi tujuan penulisan artikel ini untuk menganalisis pengekalan status quo BN dalam PRK DUN Mahkota. Penulisan artikel ini adalah berdasarkan pemerhatian di lapangan, data keputusan PRK DUN Mahkota mengikut kawasan Daerah Mengundi dan rujukan sumber sekunder yang dianalisis berdasarkan pemikiran penulis. Hasil kajian menunjukkan BN/UMNO berjaya mengekalkan kemenangan kerusi DUN ini dengan majoriti undi yang meningkat lebih besar berbanding PRN 2022. BN/UMNO menang di kesemua pusat atau Daerah Mengundi majoriti kaum Melayu, majoriti kaum Cina dan kawasan campuran termasuk undi pos dan undi awal. Terdapat tujuh faktor kemenangan BN/UMNO dalam PRK ini iaitu antaranya politik nilai, identifikasi parti, politik pembangunan, kepimpinan dan visi Menteri Besar Johor, kredibiliti calon BN/UMNO, kemantapan jentera kempen BN+PH dan kelemahan PN. Justeru, PRK ini dapat dijadikan pendorong atau semangat kepada BN dan PH untuk terus berkhidmat kepada pengundi sebaik mungkin secara konsisten dan berterusan menuju PRU akan datang.

Kata kunci: Pilihan Raya Umum; Pilihan Raya Kecil; jentera pilihan raya;, sokongan pengundi; faktor kemenangan.

Abstract: After the 15th General Election (PRU), 2023, there will be 10 By-Elections and the last one is the area of Mahkota State Assembly Election held on September 28, 2024. This area of Mahkota State Assembly Election will be contested by BN for the fourth time after participating in By-Election in Parliamentary area of Kemaman, State Legislative Assembly area of Pelangai and Nenggiri. This by-election is important to raise the morale of the BN election machinery, especially UMNO, and restore voter support to BN/UMNO. DUN Mahkota held a by-election following the death of its incumbent. This area which is located in Kluang Parliament, Johor is a BN stronghold because BN won four times and only lost once. Therefore, it is the purpose of writing this article to analyze the maintenance of BN's status quo in the Mahkota DUN by-election. The writing of this article is based on observations in the field, data on the results of the area of Mahkota State Legislative Assembly by-election by Voting District area and references to secondary sources that are analyzed based on the author's thoughts. The results of the study show that BN/UMNO managed to maintain the victory of this state assembly seat with a greater majority of votes compared to 2022 State Election. BN/UMNO won in all centers or districts where the majority of the Malays voted, the majority of the Chinese and mixed areas including postal votes and early votes. There are seven factors for BN/UMNO's victory in this by-election, which include value politics, party identification, development politics, the leadership and vision of the Johor Chief Minister, the credibility of BN/UMNO candidates, the robustness of the BN+PH campaign machinery and the weaknesses of PN. Thus, this by-election can be used as an incentive or motivation for BN and PH to continue to serve the voters as best as possible consistently and continuously towards the next GE.

Keywords: General Elections; By-Elections; election machinery; voter support; winning factors

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