Fenomena ketidakseimbangan imbangan air dalam kitaran hidrologi menjadi cabaran utama dalam memastikan ekosistem lembangan sungai kekal terpelihara. Implikasi terhadap ketidakseimbangan telah menyebabkan kejadian bencana seperti banjir dan kemusnahan ekosistem semula jadi sungai. Faktor aktiviti guna tanah dan perubahan litupan tanah menjadi punca kepada ketidakseimbangan yang berlaku khususnya air larian. Perubahan guna tanah telah meningkatkan kadar air larian permukaan dan menyumbang kepada kejadian banjir setempat. Kajian ini meneliti perubahan guna tanah dalam tempoh 10 tahun (2012–2022) serta kesannya terhadap penghasilan air larian di lembangan sungai Batang Jerlang, Negeri Sembilan. Data hujan selama 26 tahun dianalisis menggunakan kaedah Normal dan Gumbel serta analisis air larian menggunakan kaedah Rasional berdasarkan ARI 2, 5, 10, 50, dan 100 tahun. Data spatial guna tanah dianalisis menggunakan perisian ArcGIS. Hasil kajian menunjukkan guna tanah jenis hutan dan badan air mengalami pengurangan sebanyak 6.92% dan 0.092%, manakala pertanian dan perlombongan mencatatkan peningkatan masing-masing sebanyak 5.01% dan 1.196%. Perubahan guna tanah telah meningkatkan tahap ketepuan kawasan (Nilai Koefisien) daripada 0.421 kepada 0.425 dalam tempoh 10 tahun. Akibatnya, kadar air larian permukaan meningkat daripada 0.67 m³/s pada kala ulang 2 tahun kepada 1.25 m³/s pada kala ulang 100 tahun. Peningkatan kadar air larian permukaan menyebabkan ciri hidraulik dan hidrologi lembangan mengalami gangguan. Justeru, pengurusan lembangan sungai bersepadu perlu diperkasakan bagi mengawal peningkatan air larian dan memastikan lembangan Batang Jerlang terus membekalkan sumber air bersih serta ekosistem sungai terus terpelihara. Pemantauan dan pengawalan oleh pihak berkuasa perlu diperluaskan bagi memastikan kesinambungan fungsi ekosistem lembangan.

Abstract: The phenomenon of water balance imbalance in the hydrological cycle poses a major challenge in ensuring the preservation of river basin ecosystems. The implications of this imbalance have led to disasters such as floods and the destruction of natural river ecosystems. Factors such as land use activities and land cover changes are the main causes of the imbalance, particularly in surface runoff. Land use changes have increased the rate of surface runoff and contributed to localized flooding events. This study examines land use changes over a 10-year period (2012–2022) and their effects on surface runoff generation in the Batang Jerlang river basin, Negeri Sembilan. Rainfall data spanning 26 years were analyzed using the Normal and Gumbel methods, while runoff analysis employed the Rational Method based on ARI (Average Recurrence Interval) of 2, 5, 10, 50, and 100 years. Spatial land use data were analyzed using ArcGIS software. The results show that forest and water body land use decreased by 6.92% and 0.092%, respectively, while agricultural and mining land use increased by 5.01% and 1.196%, respectively. Land use changes increased the area saturation level (Coefficient Value) from 0.421 to 0.425 over the 10-year period. Consequently, the surface runoff rate increased from 0.67 m³/s for a 2-year return period to 1.25 m³/s for a 100-year return period. The increase in surface runoff disrupts the hydraulic and hydrological characteristics of the basin. Therefore, integrated river basin management must be strengthened to control the rise in runoff and ensure that the Batang Jerlang basin continues to supply clean water sources and preserve the river ecosystem. Monitoring and regulation by the authorities must be expanded to ensure the sustainability of basin ecosystem functions.

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